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2004 Senate · FL

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2004-10-30 (3 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 46%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.32% · Republican 49.43%

R+1.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 46 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.321 − 49.434 = -1.113
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (-1.113) = 2.113
  4. Absolute miss = |2.113| = 2.113

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4318, race ID 1621 (538 database).