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2004 Senate · CA

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2004-10-30 (3 days before the election) · 767 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 57% · Republican 36%

D+21.0

The certified result

Democrat 57.71% · Republican 37.80%

D+19.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 57 − 36 = 21.00
  2. Actual margin = 57.708 − 37.798 = 19.910
  3. Signed miss = 21.00 − (19.910) = 1.090
  4. Absolute miss = |1.090| = 1.090

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4322, race ID 1618 (538 database).