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2004 President · CA

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2004-10-30 (3 days before the election) · 767 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 43%

D+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.30% · Republican 44.36%

D+9.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 43 = 11.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.303 − 44.356 = 9.947
  3. Signed miss = 11.00 − (9.947) = 1.053
  4. Absolute miss = |1.053| = 1.053

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4322, race ID 759 (538 database).