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2004 Senate · NH

University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2004-10-30 (3 days before the election) · 957 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 27% · Republican 63%

R+36.0

The certified result

Democrat 33.72% · Republican 66.18%

R+32.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 27 − 63 = -36.00
  2. Actual margin = 33.717 − 66.178 = -32.461
  3. Signed miss = -36.00 − (-32.461) = -3.539
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.539| = 3.539

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4325, race ID 1634 (538 database).