2004 House · NH-1
University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2004-10-30 (3 days before the election) · 492 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 36% · Republican 55%
R+19.0
The certified result
Democrat 36.56% · Republican 63.34%
R+26.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 36 − 55 = -19.00
- Actual margin = 36.560 − 63.344 = -26.784
- Signed miss = -19.00 − (-26.784) = 7.783
- Absolute miss = |7.783| = 7.783
The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4325, race ID 3396 (538 database).