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2004 House · NH-2

University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2004-10-30 (3 days before the election) · 464 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 37% · Republican 55%

R+18.0

The certified result

Democrat 38.17% · Republican 58.26%

R+20.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37 − 55 = -18.00
  2. Actual margin = 38.173 − 58.255 = -20.082
  3. Signed miss = -18.00 − (-20.082) = 2.082
  4. Absolute miss = |2.082| = 2.082

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4325, race ID 3397 (538 database).