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2004 Governor · MO

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2004-10-30 (3 days before the election) · 689 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 47%

even

The certified result

Democrat 47.85% · Republican 50.83%

R+3.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 47 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.854 − 50.832 = -2.978
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-2.978) = 2.978
  4. Absolute miss = |2.978| = 2.978

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.0 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4330, race ID 1367 (538 database).