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2004 President · MO

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2004-10-30 (3 days before the election) · 694 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 52%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.10% · Republican 53.30%

R+7.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 52 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.100 − 53.296 = -7.196
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-7.196) = 2.196
  4. Absolute miss = |2.196| = 2.196

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4330, race ID 779 (538 database).