2004 President · OH
Gallup · fieldwork ended 2004-10-30 (3 days before the election) · 1,111 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 50% · Republican 46%
D+4.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.71% · Republican 50.81%
R+2.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 50 − 46 = 4.00
- Actual margin = 48.707 − 50.814 = -2.107
- Signed miss = 4.00 − (-2.107) = 6.107
- Absolute miss = |6.107| = 6.107
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.1 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4337, race ID 790 (538 database).