2004 Senate · NV
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2004-10-30 (3 days before the election) · 603 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 58% · Republican 34%
D+24.0
The certified result
Democrat 61.08% · Republican 35.14%
D+25.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 58 − 34 = 24.00
- Actual margin = 61.082 − 35.138 = 25.944
- Signed miss = 24.00 − (25.944) = -1.944
- Absolute miss = |-1.944| = 1.944
The poll overstated the Republican by 1.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4340, race ID 1633 (538 database).