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2004 House · ME-1

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2004-10-29 (4 days before the election) · 652 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 55% · Republican 39%

D+16.0

The certified result

Democrat 59.74% · Republican 40.26%

D+19.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 55 − 39 = 16.00
  2. Actual margin = 59.736 − 40.264 = 19.472
  3. Signed miss = 16.00 − (19.472) = -3.473
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.473| = 3.473

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4347, race ID 3333 (538 database).