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2004 House · ME-2

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2004-10-29 (4 days before the election) · 673 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 40%

D+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 58.03% · Republican 39.47%

D+18.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 40 = 13.00
  2. Actual margin = 58.032 − 39.468 = 18.564
  3. Signed miss = 13.00 − (18.564) = -5.564
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.564| = 5.564

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4347, race ID 3334 (538 database).