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2004 President · AZ

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2004-10-29 (4 days before the election) · 599 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 56%

R+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.40% · Republican 54.87%

R+10.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 56 = -15.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.397 − 54.869 = -10.472
  3. Signed miss = -15.00 − (-10.472) = -4.527
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.527| = 4.527

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4350, race ID 758 (538 database).