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2004 President · KY

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2004-10-29 (4 days before the election) · 636 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 38% · Republican 59%

R+21.0

The certified result

Democrat 39.69% · Republican 59.55%

R+19.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38 − 59 = -21.00
  2. Actual margin = 39.687 − 59.550 = -19.863
  3. Signed miss = -21.00 − (-19.863) = -1.138
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.138| = 1.138

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4351, race ID 772 (538 database).