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2004 President · MI

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2004-10-29 (4 days before the election) · 671 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 47%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.23% · Republican 47.81%

D+3.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 47 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.231 − 47.812 = 3.419
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (3.419) = -0.419
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.419| = 0.419

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4352, race ID 777 (538 database).