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2004 President · NV

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2004-10-28 (5 days before the election) · 535 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 49%

even

The certified result

Democrat 47.88% · Republican 50.47%

R+2.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 49 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.878 − 50.470 = -2.592
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-2.592) = 2.592
  4. Absolute miss = |2.592| = 2.592

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.6 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4355, race ID 788 (538 database).