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2004 Senate · CO

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2004-10-29 (4 days before the election) · 622 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 47%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.30% · Republican 46.53%

D+4.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 47 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.303 − 46.533 = 4.770
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (4.770) = -2.770
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.770| = 2.770

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4356, race ID 1619 (538 database).