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2004 Senate · GA

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2004-10-29 (4 days before the election) · 624 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 56%

R+16.0

The certified result

Democrat 39.98% · Republican 57.88%

R+17.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 56 = -16.00
  2. Actual margin = 39.978 − 57.877 = -17.899
  3. Signed miss = -16.00 − (-17.899) = 1.899
  4. Absolute miss = |1.899| = 1.899

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4357, race ID 1622 (538 database).