2004 Senate · GA
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2004-10-28 (5 days before the election) · 501 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 36% · Republican 49%
R+13.0
The certified result
Democrat 39.98% · Republican 57.88%
R+17.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 36 − 49 = -13.00
- Actual margin = 39.978 − 57.877 = -17.899
- Signed miss = -13.00 − (-17.899) = 4.899
- Absolute miss = |4.899| = 4.899
The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4371, race ID 1622 (538 database).