2004 President · MN
Minneapolis Star Tribune · fieldwork ended 2004-10-28 (5 days before the election) · 996 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 41%
D+8.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.09% · Republican 47.61%
D+3.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 41 = 8.00
- Actual margin = 51.090 − 47.614 = 3.476
- Signed miss = 8.00 − (3.476) = 4.524
- Absolute miss = |4.524| = 4.524
The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4400, race ID 778 (538 database).