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2004 House · NM-1

Research & Polling Inc. · fieldwork ended 2004-10-28 (5 days before the election) · 568 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 51%

R+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.53% · Republican 54.40%

R+8.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 51 = -8.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.529 − 54.400 = -8.871
  3. Signed miss = -8.00 − (-8.871) = 0.871
  4. Absolute miss = |0.871| = 0.871

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4401, race ID 3411 (538 database).