2015 Governor · LA
Market Research Insight · fieldwork ended 2015-11-09 (12 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 52% · Republican 38%
D+14.0
The certified result
Democrat 56.12% · Republican 43.88%
D+12.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 52 − 38 = 14.00
- Actual margin = 56.115 − 43.885 = 12.230
- Signed miss = 14.00 − (12.230) = 1.771
- Absolute miss = |1.771| = 1.771
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 44103, race ID 1219 (538 database).