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2015 Governor · KY

Vox Populi Polling · fieldwork ended 2015-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 618 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 44%

even

The certified result

Democrat 43.81% · Republican 52.52%

R+8.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 44 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.815 − 52.519 = -8.704
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-8.704) = 8.704
  4. Absolute miss = |8.704| = 8.704

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.7 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 44106, race ID 1216 (538 database).