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2009 Governor · NJ

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2009-10-25 (9 days before the election) · 630 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 38% · Republican 42%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.88% · Republican 48.46%

R+3.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38 − 42 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.879 − 48.457 = -3.578
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-3.578) = -0.422
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.422| = 0.422

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 44247, race ID 1311 (538 database).