2004 President · TX
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2004-10-27 (6 days before the election) · 602 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 37% · Republican 59%
R+22.0
The certified result
Democrat 38.22% · Republican 61.09%
R+22.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 37 − 59 = -22.00
- Actual margin = 38.224 − 61.086 = -22.862
- Signed miss = -22.00 − (-22.862) = 0.862
- Absolute miss = |0.862| = 0.862
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4426, race ID 798 (538 database).