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2004 President · NY

Siena College · fieldwork ended 2004-10-27 (6 days before the election) · 1,062 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 37%

D+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.13% · Republican 37.69%

D+18.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 37 = 15.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.131 − 37.687 = 18.444
  3. Signed miss = 15.00 − (18.444) = -3.444
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.444| = 3.444

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4431, race ID 789 (538 database).