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2004 President · MN

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2004-10-27 (6 days before the election) · 603 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 46%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.09% · Republican 47.61%

D+3.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 46 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.090 − 47.614 = 3.476
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (3.476) = -4.476
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.476| = 4.476

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.5 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4433, race ID 778 (538 database).