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2004 President · WI

American Research Group · fieldwork ended 2004-10-26 (7 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 47%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.70% · Republican 49.32%

D+0.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 47 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.700 − 49.320 = 0.380
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (0.380) = 0.620
  4. Absolute miss = |0.620| = 0.620

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4446, race ID 803 (538 database).