Skip to content

2004 President · OH

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2004-10-28 (5 days before the election) · 600 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 50%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.71% · Republican 50.81%

R+2.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 50 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.707 − 50.814 = -2.107
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-2.107) = -1.893
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.893| = 1.893

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4458, race ID 790 (538 database).