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2004 President · OR

American Research Group · fieldwork ended 2004-10-26 (7 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 46%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.35% · Republican 47.19%

D+4.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 46 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.349 − 47.193 = 4.156
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (4.156) = -0.156
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.156| = 0.156

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4462, race ID 792 (538 database).