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2004 Senate · NY

Marist College · fieldwork ended 2004-10-25 (8 days before the election) · 817 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 72% · Republican 16%

D+56.0

The certified result

Democrat 58.88% · Republican 21.82%

D+37.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 72 − 16 = 56.00
  2. Actual margin = 58.875 − 21.819 = 37.056
  3. Signed miss = 56.00 − (37.056) = 18.944
  4. Absolute miss = |18.944| = 18.944

The poll overstated the Democrat by 18.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4465, race ID 1635 (538 database).