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2004 President · FL

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2004-10-28 (5 days before the election) · 600 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 50%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.09% · Republican 52.10%

R+5.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 50 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.091 − 52.098 = -5.007
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (-5.007) = 2.006
  4. Absolute miss = |2.006| = 2.006

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4466, race ID 764 (538 database).