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2004 President · MD

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2004-10-25 (8 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 41%

D+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.91% · Republican 42.93%

D+13.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 41 = 11.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.914 − 42.934 = 12.980
  3. Signed miss = 11.00 − (12.980) = -1.980
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.980| = 1.980

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4478, race ID 775 (538 database).