2004 Senate · NV
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2004-10-26 (7 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 57% · Republican 34%
D+23.0
The certified result
Democrat 61.08% · Republican 35.14%
D+25.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 57 − 34 = 23.00
- Actual margin = 61.082 − 35.138 = 25.944
- Signed miss = 23.00 − (25.944) = -2.944
- Absolute miss = |-2.944| = 2.944
The poll overstated the Republican by 2.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4485, race ID 1633 (538 database).