2004 Senate · PA
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2004-10-26 (7 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 29% · Republican 55%
R+26.0
The certified result
Democrat 41.99% · Republican 52.62%
R+10.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 29 − 55 = -26.00
- Actual margin = 41.987 − 52.618 = -10.631
- Signed miss = -26.00 − (-10.631) = -15.370
- Absolute miss = |-15.370| = 15.370
The poll overstated the Republican by 15.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4486, race ID 1641 (538 database).