2004 President · FL
American Research Group · fieldwork ended 2004-10-24 (9 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 46%
D+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.09% · Republican 52.10%
R+5.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 46 = 3.00
- Actual margin = 47.091 − 52.098 = -5.007
- Signed miss = 3.00 − (-5.007) = 8.006
- Absolute miss = |8.006| = 8.006
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.0 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4502, race ID 764 (538 database).