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2004 Governor · WA

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2004-10-24 (9 days before the election) · 618 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 47%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.87% · Republican 48.87%

even

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 47 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.873 − 48.868 = 0.005
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (0.005) = 1.995
  4. Absolute miss = |1.995| = 1.995

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4506, race ID 1373 (538 database).