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2004 Senate · OH

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2004-10-24 (9 days before the election) · 818 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 33% · Republican 59%

R+26.0

The certified result

Democrat 36.15% · Republican 63.85%

R+27.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 33 − 59 = -26.00
  2. Actual margin = 36.145 − 63.849 = -27.704
  3. Signed miss = -26.00 − (-27.704) = 1.704
  4. Absolute miss = |1.704| = 1.704

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4514, race ID 1638 (538 database).