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2004 President · PA

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2004-10-24 (9 days before the election) · 803 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 45%

D+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.92% · Republican 48.42%

D+2.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 45 = 8.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.924 − 48.424 = 2.500
  3. Signed miss = 8.00 − (2.500) = 5.500
  4. Absolute miss = |5.500| = 5.500

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4515, race ID 793 (538 database).