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2004 President · PA

Los Angeles Times · fieldwork ended 2004-10-24 (9 days before the election) · 568 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 48%

even

The certified result

Democrat 50.92% · Republican 48.42%

D+2.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 48 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.924 − 48.424 = 2.500
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (2.500) = -2.500
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.500| = 2.500

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.5 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4528, race ID 793 (538 database).