Skip to content

2004 President · OH

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2004-10-23 (10 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 47%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.71% · Republican 50.81%

R+2.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 47 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.707 − 50.814 = -2.107
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-2.107) = -2.893
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.893| = 2.893

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4553, race ID 790 (538 database).