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2004 President · MN

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2004-10-23 (10 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 45%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.09% · Republican 47.61%

D+3.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 45 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.090 − 47.614 = 3.476
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (3.476) = -2.476
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.476| = 2.476

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4557, race ID 778 (538 database).