Skip to content

2004 President · NV

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2004-10-23 (10 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 48%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.88% · Republican 50.47%

R+2.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 48 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.878 − 50.470 = -2.592
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-2.592) = -1.408
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.408| = 1.408

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4559, race ID 788 (538 database).