2004 President · ME
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2004-10-20 (13 days before the election) · 402 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 50% · Republican 39%
D+11.0
The certified result
Democrat 53.57% · Republican 44.58%
D+9.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 50 − 39 = 11.00
- Actual margin = 53.573 − 44.576 = 8.997
- Signed miss = 11.00 − (8.997) = 2.004
- Absolute miss = |2.004| = 2.004
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4574, race ID 776 (538 database).