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2004 Senate · CO

FM3 Research · fieldwork ended 2004-10-20 (13 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 45%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.30% · Republican 46.53%

D+4.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 45 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.303 − 46.533 = 4.770
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (4.770) = 0.230
  4. Absolute miss = |0.230| = 0.230

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4577, race ID 1619 (538 database).