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2004 President · CO

FM3 Research · fieldwork ended 2004-10-20 (13 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 48%

even

The certified result

Democrat 47.04% · Republican 51.71%

R+4.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 48 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.038 − 51.711 = -4.673
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-4.673) = 4.673
  4. Absolute miss = |4.673| = 4.673

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.7 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4577, race ID 760 (538 database).