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2004 Senate · FL

SEA Polling & Strategic Design · fieldwork ended 2004-10-20 (13 days before the election) · 800 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 44%

even

The certified result

Democrat 48.32% · Republican 49.43%

R+1.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 44 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.321 − 49.434 = -1.113
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-1.113) = 1.113
  4. Absolute miss = |1.113| = 1.113

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.1 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4584, race ID 1621 (538 database).