2004 Senate · PA
Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research · fieldwork ended 2004-10-21 (12 days before the election) · 376 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 31% · Republican 52%
R+21.0
The certified result
Democrat 41.99% · Republican 52.62%
R+10.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 31 − 52 = -21.00
- Actual margin = 41.987 − 52.618 = -10.631
- Signed miss = -21.00 − (-10.631) = -10.370
- Absolute miss = |-10.370| = 10.370
The poll overstated the Republican by 10.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4587, race ID 1641 (538 database).