2004 Governor · NC
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2004-10-18 (15 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 55% · Republican 35%
D+20.0
The certified result
Democrat 55.62% · Republican 42.88%
D+12.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 55 − 35 = 20.00
- Actual margin = 55.616 − 42.878 = 12.738
- Signed miss = 20.00 − (12.738) = 7.262
- Absolute miss = |7.262| = 7.262
The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4599, race ID 1369 (538 database).