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2004 Senate · CO

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2004-10-18 (15 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 49%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.30% · Republican 46.53%

D+4.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 49 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.303 − 46.533 = 4.770
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (4.770) = -5.770
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.770| = 5.770

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.8 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4601, race ID 1619 (538 database).